It's far from certain that Northvolt's bankruptcy administrator Mikael Kubu will manage to find a buyer for the fallen battery giant, but several people we've spoken to think it's likely.
"I believe there will be a sale and that a Chinese company will buy it," as one person puts it.
Meanwhile, Sweden's Business and Energy Minister Ebba Busch said in an interview that it would be "dangerous" if a Chinese company bought Northvolt.
So who could the potential buyers be? Here's Impact Loop's list of possible – and less likely – buyers of Northvolt.
Goldman Sachs (unlikely)
Investment bank Goldman Sachs is one of Northvolt's largest investors with over 15 percent of shares. But our sources don't think they, as a financial institution, would buy the battery company:
"I've heard they wrote it off and moved on basically the day after (the bankruptcy). They're speculators and have no long-term interest in making this work. They probably thought they'd make a good deal, but it didn't turn out that way," says Carl-Magnus Norden.
Norden is the founder of electrification platform Decade and electric truck manufacturer Volta Trucks, the latter of which went bankrupt in 2023 and was subsequently sold to American hedge fund Luxor Capital Group. In other words, he has good insight into both the industry and bankruptcy acquisitions.
"French Northvolt" Verkor (unlikely)
The closest thing to a European Northvolt is French battery manufacturer Verkor, founded by Benoit Lemaignan, France's equivalent to Peter Carlsson.
But the scenario of a European battery manufacturer buying Northvolt, even if it might seem natural at first glance, feels unlikely.
"It's a bit like the blind leading the blind," says one of our sources. "None of them has seriously started battery production yet; they're still chasing funding. I don't think a European manufacturer can manage without the Chinese."
There's also another aspect – Verkor's battery factory has received substantial subsidies from the French government.
"They're already building a factory in northern France, so suddenly pivoting to have a factory in Sweden seems quite unlikely. Verkor has good financing in France and wants to create local jobs."
When Impact Loop interviewed Verkor's founder and CEO Benoit Lemaignan last autumn, he also stressed the importance of focusing and doing one thing really well – not starting several factories simultaneously.
One of the customers:
1. Volkswagen (doubtful)
Volkswagen already has a foot in the door at Northvolt and has invested heavily in the company. They also need a stable battery supply for their electric vehicles, which suggests they might want to take over. They have the financial muscle to do it – but do they want to?
Doubtful.
Northvolt has already cost them a lot, and VW has its own economic challenges to handle. One of our sources emphasises that the European car industry is generally struggling right now, and that a buyer is unlikely to come from there.
"Even Porsche is laying people off. It's unlikely that a car manufacturer will buy Northvolt."
However, one of Northvolt's customers, such as Volkswagen, might be interested in participating in a consortium with, for example, a Chinese battery manufacturer, speculates Volta Trucks founder Carl-Magnus Norden.
"What Northvolt needs is technical expertise. More money from Volkswagen doesn't help. But you could imagine that one of the customers – Volkswagen, Scania, or even Volvo, who all need batteries – could be part of a consortium," he says, adding:
"I personally think the best would be a combination of a Chinese owner who knows manufacturing and technology together with some Europeans on the customer side who need these batteries."
2. Scania (maybe)
Scania has already shown interest by bidding on parts of Northvolt's battery pack operations, making them a reasonable candidate. Securing battery supply is a strategic advantage for their electric trucks. But even though Scania is a strong player with stable finances, they're not a company that spontaneously throws billions at rescuing a bankrupt battery manufacturer. It's more likely they're interested in certain assets rather than taking over the entire company.
3. Volvo (maybe)
Volvo has already had a connection to Northvolt through Novo Energy, but that collaboration didn't go as planned. They recently bought out Northvolt's share for a symbolic amount, showing they want more control over their battery supply.
"It's not impossible," says Carl-Magnus Norden when asked if Volvo might buy Northvolt or join a consortium. "Volvo is doing well, and car manufacturers need batteries. The factory they built is just a packing factory; they still need cells."
The question is whether Volvo wants to take on even more of Northvolt's problems. The joint project has already been plagued by delays and quality issues, and it would take large sums to turn the situation around.
There's also another factor: the price of the batteries.
"For large car manufacturers today, it's better to be a customer of a Chinese company than to buy into their own factory in Europe, because prices have been lowered so much over the past four years," says another expert.
Harald Mix with consortium (maybe)
Venture capitalist and Vargas founder Harald Mix has invested huge amounts of money and prestige in Northvolt. Him buying the company together with a group of investors could be a possible solution. The advantage of such a group is that it can combine different competencies and financial resources to turn the ship around - and right some of the wrongs.
"That would be so typical of Harald," says one person we've talked to.
At the same time, a consortium doesn't have unlimited resources – it's more about finding a smart structure and attracting investors. It could work, but the question is whether they can gather enough capital to take over all of Northvolt, or if they would only buy selected parts.
EIT InnoEnergy with Demeter Investment Managers (maybe)
Energy investor EIT InnoEnergy is a dark horse in this context. They were the only one of Northvolt's investors who publicly stated they would back the battery company when things were at their lowest.
"We investors must be there in both good and bad days," said CEO Diego Pavía in an interview with Impact Loop in October.
But EIT InnoEnergy is especially interesting for two other reasons:
→ In 2024, they and venture capital firm Demeter Investment Managers started a massive €500m battery fund specifically to invest in battery production.
→ EIT InnoEnergy is not just an investor, but – in the style of the Vargas group – likes to launch their own companies when they see a need.
→ They have also invested in French battery company Verkor.
"When we see that there's a gap in the value chain and there's no one who has a business there, or is about to start one, then we do it ourselves," the company's Scandinavian CEO Lowina Lundström has previously told Impact Loop.
Impact Loop therefore assesses them as a potential partial buyer, but if so, as part of a consortium.
Altor (doubtful)
Venture capital firm Altor, also connected to Harald Mix, has experience in rescuing struggling industrial companies like Renewcell. They are good at creating long-term value, but they're not a player with unlimited funds. The risk is that they see Northvolt as too expensive and too big of a gamble. Possibly they could be part of a consortium.
Swedish government (unlikely)
The Swedish government could step in to save jobs and prop up a key player in the green transition. There's also some prestige in saving Northvolt. At the same time, Business and Energy Minister Ebba Busch said as recently as Thursday afternoon that she didn't believe in a solution where the state takes over Northvolt.
It's also politically sensitive to use taxpayer money to save a private company, and Northvolt has already faced strong criticism for taking part in state guarantees. Public opinion is therefore not in Northvolt's favor right now.
"It's highly unlikely that the Swedish state would become an owner. It's more likely that the state would step in with guarantees. All battery factories built in Europe have received state guarantees," as one of the experts we spoke with says.
A buyer from the US (unlikely)
There are plenty of American players who are used to buying bankrupt estates and trying to turn them into profit. Private equity firms have previously stepped into similar situations, and in theory, American car manufacturers like GM and Ford could be interested in securing European battery production. Hedge funds and other financial players could also be interested in buying cheaply and then trying to turn the company around. The Americans definitely have the capital, but the question is whether they see Northvolt as attractive enough to take the risk.
"I think they've tested that and hit rock bottom when it comes to the USA, during the Chapter 11 process," says one person.
Something that strongly argues against an American buyer is that the US is governed by President Donald Trump and his focus on strengthening domestic industry.
At the same time, one person Impact Loop spoke with raises the possibility of an American player buying Northvolt and moving the factories to the US, where tariffs provide better protection against Chinese competition.
Wallenberg sphere and Investor (unlikely)
An actor who, as far as we know, hasn't yet taken a seat at the negotiating table is the Wallenberg sphere, led by Investor. They have a strong connection to Swedish technology and manufacturing industries and have historically played an important role in preserving and developing Swedish industry. Investor's long-term ownership strategy and experience with capital-intensive industries could also add stability.
What counts against them, however, is that "turnaround cases aren't really their thing," as one of our sources says. That they would take on the leadership role for an industry they lack experience in is unlikely at present, the person believes. Possibly they could point to one of their companies, such as ABB, to do it with Wallenberg's blessing.
South Korean LG or Samsung (maybe)
Both LG Energy Solution, which has one of Europe's largest factories for electric car batteries in Poland, and Samsung SDI, which BMW previously bought batteries from when Northvolt couldn't deliver, were mentioned in our conversations. But a Korean buyer is portrayed as less likely compared to a Chinese one, primarily with reference to a Chinese company having more to gain from a new major establishment in Europe. On the other hand, the Korean companies were seen as more likely buyers than several others because they have knowhow and are established in the battery industry.
The Chinese: EVE Battery, Ganfeng Lithium, Envision group, CATL or CALB (very likely)
A Chinese buyer? That's a dividing issue. On one hand, Ebba Busch said as recently as Thursday afternoon that she thinks Chinese ownership would be "dangerous" (though she's not the one who decides if such an acquisition goes through).
On the other hand, several of the experts Impact Loop has spoken with suggest that this is actually the most likely alternative.
As Carl-Magnus Norden at Decade, who just returned from China where he met some of the leading battery companies, notes: The Chinese are really the only ones in the world who have the technical expertise and manufacturing capability. Because competition in China is "murderous," they also need to enter new markets, where Europe is highly interesting.
"I'm deeply impressed by those I've met," says Carl-Magnus Norden. "The idea that Europeans could catch up on their own, I think is just forgetting reality; you have to collaborate. I think it would be a perfect match together with some European companies as customers. The Chinese know manufacturing and research, but not the market and sales."
He lists Chinese battery manufacturers EVE Battery, Ganfeng Lithium, Envision group, and CALB, and speculates that CALB is the "most likely."
There's also battery giant CATL with enormous resources.
However, there's a risk of regulatory hurdles and a general concern about technology transfer. But among those we've spoken to, a Chinese buyer is presented as the most likely.
What do YOU as a reader think? Have we missed anyone? Contact us at editorial@loop.se!
